Methodology and Quality Update

Latest Update on Methodology and Quality

23/12/2025

Statistical Presentation

Data description

An index that measures changes in the level of consumers’ optimism or pessimism toward the economy in the near future, based on an economic survey that captures consumers’ opinions, perceptions, and Confidence regarding current economic conditions, as well as their expectations for future economic conditions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Consumer Confidence is a Survey conducted to collect data on the following key characteristics:
•    To provide periodic indicators of current and future Consumer Confidence regarding economic conditions in the Kingdom, such as the general price level, employment opportunities, and living conditions 
•    To measure the degree of consumer optimism and pessimism in the current and future periods. 
•    To assess consumers’ purchasing power for durable goods (such as furniture, household appliances, and vehicles) in the current and future periods.
•    Provide periodic statistics to support local, regional, and international comparisons, as well as studies and analyses.
•    Meet the needs of government agencies, private sector and researchers for statistical data and information.

Classifications

The following classifications are applied in Consumer Confidence
Saudi Classification of Specializations and Educational Levels:
An statistical classification based on the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED_11) and (ISCED_13) for education and training, issued by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). It serves as the reference classification for organizing educational programs and qualifications according to their levels and fields of study. It comprehensively covers all educational programs, levels, and methods, spanning from early childhood education to higher education levels.
This classification is used in Consumer Confidence to classify individuals aged 18 years and over according to their fields of specialization and educational levels.
National Code of Countries and Nationalities (3166 ISO – codes Country):
A statistical classification based on the international standard (ISO 3166 – Country Codes), issued by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO). This classification provides numeric and alphabetic codes for the countries of the world, totaling 248 countries, based on country classification.
This classification is used in Consumer Confidence to classify individuals as Saudi and non-Saudi.
Detailed data are collected through interviews to enable the production of outputs in accordance with all relevant classifications.
The classifications are available on the GASTAT website:   www.stats.gov.sa

Statistical concepts and definitions

Terms and Concepts of the Consumer Confidence Index:
•    Consumer Confidence Index:
It is an index that measures changes in the level of consumers’ optimism or pessimism toward the economy in the near future, based on an economic survey that captures consumers’ opinions, perceptions, and Confidence regarding current economic conditions, as well as their expectations for future economic conditions.
•    General Consumer Confidence Index:
Measures Saudi consumers’ opinions regarding their current economic situation and that of their households, as well as their future expectations for the overall performance of the economy in the short term and the medium term.
•    Economic Conditions Expectations Index:
It measures consumers’ opinions regarding their current economic situation, that of their households, and their purchasing power.  

Data sources

The primary source of data for the Consumer Confidence Survey is a telephone survey conducted monthly by GASTAT. Information is collected through telephone interviews with individuals using an electronic questionnaire that includes a set of questions, which are used to produce indicators related to consumer sentiment. 
The main variables published in the Consumer Confidence Index Survey publication are as follows:
•    General Consumer Confidence Index.
•    Economic Conditions Expectations Index.

Designing the data collection tool

Data were collected using a questionnaire prepared and designed by specialists at GASTAT. The data collection instrument was designed using the computer-assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) method to conduct telephone interviews with the target population. International recommendations, standards, and definitions were considered in the design of the questionnaire, which was also reviewed by relevant entities to obtain their views and comments. The questions were formulated in a scientifically standardized manner to ensure consistency in question wording and administration.
Sections of the questionnaire:
The questionnaire is divided into three sections, as follows:
•    Identification data.
•    Individual characteristics.
•    Questionnaire questions.

Method of calculating the indicators:
Consumer Confidence Indicators are calculated by following the most important international practices at the level of countries of the world.  This methodology is used by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan in the United States and is one of the most common and used methods in calculating the index.
The value of the Consumer Confidence Index ranges between 0 and 200 points. When the index reaches 200 points, the opinions of all respondents in the sample are positive, indicating consumer optimism toward economic conditions. The index reflects a neutral level when it reaches 100 points. Values below 100 points indicate consumer pessimism toward the economic situation, and the index reaches its minimum value of zero when all respondents in the sample express pessimistic views toward economic conditions.
The main Consumer Confidence Indicators are calculated through the following steps:
First: The relative value for each question is calculated by deriving the proportions of optimistic and pessimistic responses out of the total number of responses, using the following formula:
•    Optimistic response ratio = Total number of optimistic responses / Total number of responses 
•    Pessimistic response ratio = Total number of pessimistic responses / Total number of responses 
•    Subsequently, the difference between the two ratios is calculated, and 100 is added to the resulting value, using the following formula:
(Positive responses − Negative responses) + 100
The first step is applied to all main indicators, which are as follows:
•    Current year financial situation index
•    Financial situation expectations index one year ahead
•    General economic situation expectations index for the Kingdom one year ahead
•    General economic situation expectations index for the Kingdom over the next five years
•    Durable goods purchase suitability index
Second: Calculation of the general Consumer Confidence Index:
The general Consumer Confidence Index is calculated by summing the values of the five main question indicators and dividing the result by the index value in the base year.
Third: Calculation of the economic Conditions expectations index:
By calculating the indicators of the first and fifth core questions and dividing the result by the index value in the base year.
Review and Correction Rules:
Audit and control rules have been established in the form to ensure that the data collected is consistent, accurate, and logical. These rules are designed to establish a logical relationship between answers and different questions and variables to help the researcher detect any errors directly when filling out the data with the household.
To ensure the quality of the elderly statistics survey data, review and correction rules were established, and they are as follows:
•    Automated adjustment rules:
These are rules established for the automatic aggregation of certain fields, or for the automatic validation of responses in specific fields, in accordance with certain questionnaires, the total number of which is ( 2 ).
•    Error rules:
These are rules that cannot be bypassed during the data entry process, whereby the enumerator is required to correct the data by referring back to the respondent to verify its accuracy. Their total number is (4).
•    Alert rules (warnings):
These are rules established to ensure the correctness of data entry by the enumerator, and the field enumerator may override them if the data are confirmed to be accurate. Their total number is (12).

Questionnaire test (cognitive test)

Cognitive testing of the survey questionnaire was conducted on a random sample of households distributed across the regions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, taking into account variations in educational level, gender, and nationality among the participants.
During the cognitive testing process, the following evaluation pillars were taken into consideration: The overall concept of the question, clarity of question wording, clarity of terms used in the question, appropriateness of the response options, participants’ ability to answer the questions effectively, and the extent to which participants were willing to disclose their answers. This process resulted in a report summarizing the full findings of the cognitive test.

Statistical population

The target statistical population for the Consumer Confidence Index Survey consists of all individuals who usually reside in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Sample Design

Sample type:
The sample was designed using a two-stage stratified systematic cluster random sampling method, in which the first stage involved selecting a random sample of primary sampling units (clusters). households) for each stratum of the approved sample design.   In the second stage, a systematic random sample of individuals was selected from within each household.
Stratification:
To increase the efficiency of the sample and enhance its representation of the target population, the primary sampling units in the sample frame were classified into homogeneous strata as follows: In order to obtain more precise results compared with a simple random sample of the same size, stratification was carried out using governorates, degree of urbanization (urban–rural), and nationality as effective strata, reflecting the need to produce survey indicators separately for each governorate. The total number of governorates is 150.

Sample allocation across strata:
The total sample size was estimated at the kingdom level, and then the sample was distributed to the thirteen administrative regions using proportional to size allocation, while adjusting the sample size for small governorates so that it does not fall below a certain value.
The total sample size amounted to 7,919 households, and the sample size was calculated using the following parameters and determinants:
•    The design effect of the sampling design used was 2.72. 
•    The response rate was 40%.
•     A confidence level of (1–α) = 0.95 was used in estimating the percentage.
Sample size estimation formula:
 The sample size for each stratum h (domain of study) was calculated as follows:

​​​​​​

Where:
•    Nₕ is the population size for each stratum h (domain of study).
•   nₕ is the sample size for each stratum h (domain of study).
•   Eₕ² is the allowable relative margin of error for each stratum h (domain of study).
•   Deffₕ is the estimated design effect for each stratum h (domain of study).
•   respₕ is the estimated response rate for each stratum h (domain of study).
•   Pₕ is the assumed indicator proportion based on a scientific basis in stratum h (domain of study).
•   α is the confidence level coefficient for the stated proportion for each domain of study h (administrative region).
Sample size and allocation across administrative regions:
The sample was designed using a stratified cluster random sampling method. The total sample size amounted to 7,919 households. The following shows the distribution of the sample across the administrative regions:

Statistical unit (sampling unit)

The statistical unit in the Consumer Confidence Index consists of household members aged 18 years and over.

Data collection

Data collection from the survey:
Data for the statistical product are collected through Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI), Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI), or Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI).
Data collection from administrative records:
In coordination with the relevant departments of GASTAT responsible for survey implementation and data collection management, administrative record data for the [statistical product name] publication are obtained from the General Organization for Social Insurance, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development. These data include information on the number of employed people, commercial registrations, and economic activities. 
The data is stored in GASTAT's databases after undergoing auditing and review processes following approved statistical methods and recognized quality standards. If errors or discrepancies are discovered, the data is cross-referenced with the data source for correction or clarification.

Data collection frequency 

The data collection process for Business Confidence Index statistics is conducted monthly.

Reference area

The Consumer Confidence Index Survey covers 13 administrative regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Reference period (time reference)

References period to the variables or dataset as follows:
•    The data on individuals, their demographic characteristics, educational level, and employment status are assigned to the date of household contact.
•    Data on the financial situation and economic conditions are assigned to the current year.
•    Data on expectations regarding the economic situation are assigned to a period ranging from one to five years ahead. 

Base period

The base year is the value of the index in a previous reference period used for comparison purposes. The reference base year was selected based on several considerations, including that it corresponds to the index reference period, is distant from extraordinary and unexpected circumstances such as economic crises and wars, is not biased toward either pessimism or optimism, and that the reference period is appropriate to current conditions. The year 2021 was adopted as the base year for the Consumer Confidence Index.

Measurement unit

All results are measured in points after applying the calculation formulas. 
Such as: Overall Consumer confidence Index (points, 0–200).

Time coverage

The data have been available since January 2023 and are updated in accordance with the publication frequency.

Publication frequency

 Data are collected monthly and published quarterly in accordance with the statistical calendar.

Statistical processing

Error detection

Electronic validation rules are applied to ensure the consistency, accuracy, and logical coherence of the data in the Consumer Confidence Survey questionnaire. These rules are electronic checks designed to detect inconsistencies in responses and are developed by establishing logical relationships among the questionnaire responses and variables. They assist the enumerator in identifying any errors immediately during data collection from household members, and the programmed rules do not allow errors to pass when a response conflicts with other information or responses in the questionnaire.
The validity of the collected data is verified by the enumerator before the end of the call to ensure data completeness and coverage. In addition, the data are reviewed and validated by specialists in the Living Conditions Statistics Department through the application of error-checking rules to ensure consistency, accuracy, and logical coherence. Observations are addressed accordingly, which may, in some cases, require referring back to the enumerator or recontacting individuals to verify the accuracy and reliability of the data.

Data integration and matching from multiple sources 

Not applicable, as the Consumer Confidence Index statistics rely on a single primary data source. 

Imputation and calibration

The sample weights were calculated by computing the design weight, which reflects the probability of selecting a sampling unit into the sample, such that the weight of a selected unit (individual) in the sample is as follows:

where π_hi is the probability of selecting individual i from stratum h.
Non-response weight adjustment:
Weight adjustment to compensate for non-response or missing data to ensure proper representation of the sample. This adjustment is made after data collection and identifying the response cases, and is calculated using the following formula:

​​​​​

where   is the nonresponse-adjusted weight for stratum (or adjustment class) h, and the adjustment factor for each stratum (or adjustment class),   is calculated as follows:

Where R represents the responses and NR represents the non-responses .

Table of survey response outcomes after the data collection process is as follows:

Seasonal adjustments

Not applicable, only final results will be published.

Adjustment of preliminary results 

Not applicable, only final results will be published.

Resources used

Quality dimensions

Suitability

A criterion that indicates the extent to which the product meets users’ needs.

User needs 

Internal users within GASTAT for Consumer Confidence Index data:
•    Social statistics
-    Living Conditions Statistics
There are a number of external users who benefit significantly from the Consumer Confidence Index data, among them:
•    Government entities.
•    Regional and international organizations.
•    Research institutions.
•    Media.
•    Individuals.
Key variables most utilized by external users:

Completeness 

The Consumer Confidence Index data are based on a telephone survey, and all data used to calculate the indicators are complete.

Accuracy and reliability 

A standard that measures how close the calculations or estimates are to the exact or true values that reflect reality.

Overall accuracy 

•    Data quality is strengthened through the selection of female enumerators based on practical and objective criteria related to the nature of the work, and through the implementation of a structured training program that provides guidance and awareness sessions, explains the instruction manual, clarifies the survey objectives and data collection methodology, and offers a detailed explanation of all questionnaire items.
•    Alert, blocking, and correction rules are applied during the data collection process on the Consumer Confidence Index electronic questionnaire to improve data quality.
•    The data are continuously examined against previous years to identify any significant changes.
•    Internal consistency of the data is verified during the data collection process.
•    Ensuring output quality through the application of internationally recognized standards and best practices.

Timeliness and punctuality 

A standard that measures the time gap between the availability of information and the occurrence of the event.
However, timeliness reflects the time difference between the date of data publication and the target date when it is actually published.

Timeliness 

GASTAT is committed to applying internationally recognized standards regarding the announcement, clarification of the time of publishing statistics on its official website, as outlined in the statistical calendar, as well as adhering to the announced time of publication. In the event of any delay, updates will be provided accordingly.

Punctuality 

Publication is carried out in accordance with the publication dates specified in the statistical calendar for the Consumer Confidence Index, as published on the GASTAT website.
The data are available at the expected time, as scheduled in the statistical release calendar. If the publication is delayed, reasons shall be provided.

Coherence and comparability

A standard that refers to the necessity of internal and temporal consistency of statistics, their logical coherence, and their comparability and integration across different regions and sources.

Comparability - geographical

The statistical data related to the Consumer Confidence Index Survey is fully comparable geographically across the administrative regions within the Kingdom, as well as at the regional and international levels, provided that the methodology used in the calculation is consistent.

Comparability - over time 

The survey commenced in 2023 as a monthly survey. The following outlines the major changes that have occurred in recent years.
•    2021:
It was adopted as the base year for the survey.
•    January 2023 
The commencement of actual data collection and the calculation of the indicators.
•    2025:
First publication on the main page of GASTAT.

Coherence- Cross domain

The Consumer Confidence Index Survey indicators are considered consistent, as their data are verified for consistency with all other statistical products that contain similar indicators. These procedures contribute to ensuring integration and coherence across statistics, thereby enhancing data reliability and the quality of the analysis based thereon, and ensuring that the results are free from any unjustified inconsistencies.

Coherence- Sub-annual and annual statistics 

Not applicable. Consumer Confidence Index data are available quarterly and can be compared monthly. 

Coherence- National Accounts 

Not applicable. The Consumer Confidence Index does not have a direct linkage with the national accounts.

Coherence- Internal 

The results of the Consumer Confidence Index Survey exhibit full internal coherence, as they are all based on the same underlying dataset and are calculated using the same methodology.

Accessibility and clarity

Users’ ability to access the data, the extent of availability of detailed or aggregated datasets, and the availability of the methodology and quality report.

Press Releases

The announcements for each publication are available on the statistical calendar as mentioned in 10.1. The press releases can be viewed on the website of GASTAT on the link: 
Press release

Publications

GASTAT issues Consumer Confidence Index publications and reports regularly in accordance with a pre-established dissemination plan, and they are published on GASTAT’s website. GASTAT is keen to publish its publications in a way that serves all users of different types, including publications in different formats that contain (publication tables, data graphs, indicators, and metadata) in both English and Arabic.
The results of the Consumer Confidence Index are available through the following channels:
Publications

Online database

The data is published on the statistical database:
GASTAT (stats.gov.sa)

Microdata accessibility

Accurate data is unit-level disaggregated data obtained from multiple sources such as sample statistical surveys, general population and housing censuses, and administrative systems, providing detailed information about the characteristics of individuals, families, business entities, and geographical areas, supporting the construction and development of statistical indicators and scientific research.
Different types of microdata files are available to meet diverse information needs.
•    Public use: 
It consists of sets of records containing information on individuals, households, or business entities anonymized in such a way that the respondent cannot be identified either directly, such as by name, address, contact number, identity number, etc., or indirectly (by combining different – especially rare – characteristics of respondents), such as age, occupation, education, etc.
•    Scientific use:
Microdata files are produced in accordance with defined methodologies and in response to data users’ requests for datasets with specific characteristics, supporting strategic studies, decision-making, and scientific research on individuals, households, and establishments, while ensuring the exclusion of any direct identifiers and compliance with confidentiality protection controls.
Qualified users who meet the standards and procedures of confidentiality protection can access the files of scientific use of accurate data through the platform "ITAHA" of GASTAT, while the most sensitive data for use is shared by visiting the accurate data laboratory within a secure environment managed by GASTAT.

References and standards

Consumer Confidence Index Survey publication framework:
Concepts, definitions, and classifications are based on internationally adopted guidelines and standards:
•    UN Household Survey Guidelines
https://unstats.un.org/iswghs/SurveyHandbooksRevision
•    UMich-CSI
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Quality assurance

GASTAT adheres to the following principles: Impartiality; user-oriented statistical products; quality of statistical processes and outputs; effectiveness of statistical processes; and minimizing the response burden on respondents. 
Data validation is conducted through quality procedures and controls implemented at different stages of the statistical process, such as: (data entry, data collection, and other final controls).

Quality assessment

GASTAT performs all statistical activities according to a national model (Generic Statistical Business Process Model—GSBPM). According to the GSBPM, the final phase of statistical activities is overall evaluation using information gathered in each phase or sub-process. This information is used to prepare the evaluation report, which outlines all the quality issues related to the specific statistical activity and serves as input for improvement actions.

Confidentiality

Confidentiality Policy

According to Royal Decree No. 23 dated 07/12/1379, data must always be kept confidential and must be used by GASTAT for statistical purposes only.
Therefore, the data is protected in the data servers of GASTAT.

Confidentiality Data Treatment

Data of SMEs survey are presented in right tables in order to summarize, understand, as well as extract their results. Moreover, to compare them with other data, and to obtain statistical significance about the selected study population. However, referring to such data indicated in tables is much easier than going back to check the original questionnaire that may include some data like: names and addresses of individuals, and names of data providers, which violates data confidentiality of statistical data.
“Anonymity of data” is one of the most important procedures. To keep data confidential,
GASTAT removed information on individual persons, households, or business entities such a way that the respondent cannot be identified either directly such as: (name, address, contact number, identity number etc.) or indirectly (by combining different - especially rare - characteristics of respondents) such as: (age, occupation, education etc.).

Dissemination policy

Statistical calendar

The Consumer Confidence Index has been included in the statistical calendar.
Statistical Calendar

User accessibility

One of GASTAT’s objectives is to better meet its clients' needs, so it immediately provides them with the publication's results once the Consumer Confidence Index Survey Publication is published.
Customer questions and inquiries about the publication and its results are also received through various communication channels, such as:
•    GASTAT official website: www.stats.gov.sa
•    GASTAT official email address:  info@stats.gov.sa
•    Official visits to GASTAT’s official head office in Riyadh or one of its branches in Saudi Arabia.
•    Official letters.
•    Statistical telephone: (199009).